Processed meat can cause health issues, even in tiny amounts. Eating just one hot dog a day increased type 2 diabetes risk by 11%. It also raised the risk of colorectal cancer by 7%. According to the researcher, there may be no such thing as a “safe amount” of processed meat consumption.

[u/mvea]

https://www.earth.com/news/processed-meat-can-cause-health-issues-even-in-tiny-amounts/

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[u/AhemExcuseMeSir]

The abstract of the actual article:

Previous research suggests detrimental health effects associated with consuming processed foods, including processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and trans fatty acids (TFAs). However, systematic characterization of the dose–response relationships between these foods and health outcomes is limited. Here, using Burden of Proof meta-regression methods, we evaluated the associations between processed meat, SSBs and TFAs and three chronic diseases: type 2 diabetes, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and colorectal cancer. We conservatively estimated that—relative to zero consumption—consuming processed meat (at 0.6–57 g d−1) was associated with at least an 11% average increase in type 2 diabetes risk and a 7% (at 0.78–55 g d−1) increase in colorectal cancer risk. SSB intake (at 1.5–390 g d−1) was associated with at least an 8% average increase in type 2 diabetes risk and a 2% (at 0–365 g d−1) increase in IHD risk. TFA consumption (at 0.25–2.56% of daily energy intake) was associated with at least a 3% average increase in IHD risk. These associations each received two-star ratings reflecting weak relationships or inconsistent input evidence, highlighting both the need for further research and—given the high burden of these chronic diseases—the merit of continuing to recommend limiting consumption of these foods.

[u/CanvasFanatic → u/AhemExcuseMeSir]

I was going to say, there’s no way that association with type 2 diabetes is direct. That’s a confounded variable.

[u/bentgrass7 → u/CanvasFanatic]

Almost. 

The association is not a variable. You could say, “This study contains confounding variables,” which is absolutely correct.

It’s very bad and dishonest reporting. People who eat lots of hotdogs also eat lots of potato chips and soda which also cause diabetes.

[u/helican]

One hotdog a day is not a tiny amount, right?

[u/burnburnmfer → u/helican]

It’s a bad title. It’s eating any processed meat, equivalent in grams to one hot dog, per day is associated with increased risk for diabetes, heart disease, etc. It’s the amount of processed meat, not the type, that matters.

Edit: the lower end of the range of daily consumption that was related to health problems was 0.6 grams per day of processed meat. The upper end was 57g per day, i.e. a hot dog. So it’s possible that health problems are related to any consumption of processed food per day, not just hot dog equivalent quantities.

[u/tucker_case → u/burnburnmfer]

What exactly counts as processed? Obviously hot dogs. But ground beef? Boneless skinless breasts? 

[u/nlutrhk → u/tucker_case]

It's mainly about meat that is cured with nitrite salts (or a natural nitrate source such as celery powder) or smoked: sausages, bacon, canned meat, and deli meat. If the meat looks pink like ham or the inside of a hotdog, it's nitrite-cured.

The article also mentions "chemical preservatives", which is an unscientific statement - I don't understand how it ended up in a peer-reviewed paper.

Edit: article link without paywall. Haile et al., Nature Medicine

[u/actionalex85 → u/nlutrhk]

Europe lowered the legal amount of nitrates in all cold cuts/sausages/hams etc starting from October this year. Sweden also came out with new guidelines tregarding eating red meat and processed meat like sausages. It's basically nothing now, I think 350 grams per week. Excluding fish and chicken.

[u/IAmPandaRock → u/actionalex85]

Why chicken and not other birds?

[u/NudeCeleryMan → u/IAmPandaRock]

I assume because chicken typically isn't cured or processed for deli meat like turkey is.

[u/maddenallday → u/nlutrhk]

Is ground chicken/turkey nitrate cured? What about the deli meat behind the counter at Whole Foods that they have to carve up?

[u/[deleted] → u/maddenallday]

Typically, "ground meat" isn't cured.

What about the deli meat behind the counter at Whole Foods that they have to carve up?

Yes.
Even the ones that say "uncured" are typically cured. If you look at the ingredient list, if you see anything with "celery" in it, its cured. "Celery salt" or "Celery extract" is high in nitrates which is the curing agent.

Whole foods sometimes uses "rose extract" or something similar. It's the same deal and high in nitrates.

It sounds good because they're not adding nitrates to the food.
It isn't good because they're adding ingredients that are high in nitrates to the food.

[u/Liefx → u/[deleted]]

Wait so is eating celery bad?

[u/rainzer → u/Liefx]

Nitrate/Nitrite naturally occurring in food sources has some health benefits - https://talcottlab.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/108/2021/03/Nitrates-and-Food.pdf

So it's a bit more complicated than yes/no for whether you should consume nitrates/nitrites. But tldr of the science we currently have is that nitrates/nitrites in meat is the problem (it reacts with the amines in meat), not in vegetables.

[u/roboticWanderor → u/rainzer]

the nitrates will react with amines in your intestines too. there is no getting away from it. these metabolites of nitrates cause cancer, no matter how they get into your body.

[u/Noobsiris → u/[deleted]]

Also, technically celery powder can be worse health wise than the actual nitrites that is trying to replace due to the amount needed to archive the same result (in other words, you could end up eating more nitrites) and that there is less regulation.

[u/[deleted] → u/Noobsiris]

Absolutely

This was a level of detail I didn't want to go into. Its easy to lose people and not the easiest concept to understand.

When a company adds nitrates to a product, they know exactly how much nitrate is added. If we need 100 units of nitrate, I'll add 100 units.
Celery powder is ground up celery. Celery is produce, and the content of each batch of produce is different. That means there is an inconsistent amount of nitrates in the powder. The range could be 70 to 130 units.

Because there is a range, they have to add enough celery powder that they're getting enough nitrate even with a low nitrate batch.
The result is when they get an average or high nitrate batch, they're still adding celery powder as if it is a low concentration batch.
On average, the uncured meat very likely has more nitrates than if they added the nitrate salt instead.

[u/ISUbutch → u/[deleted]]

Important to differentiate between Nitrates (NO3) than Nitrites (NO2). Celery, beetroot, Swiss chard are naturally high in Nitrates. To increase content of nitrate they use fertilizer and climate (Chile, China). They then need to ferment (culture) the celery to reduce it to NO2. This version is more readily available for the meat to use.

And true “uncured” items do not have a maximum amount however they (cultured celery, Swiss chard) are much more (10x) expensive than nitrite and thus overall usage is less nitrite (ppm) then the conventional method.

Also, really important to know that using nitrates/nitrite inhibits the growth of Clostridium Botulinum. This is the bacteria that causes botulism

[u/guyincognito121 → u/[deleted]]

I mean, they are absolutely adding nitrates. They're just doing it with ingredients that sound "natural" rather than sounding like "chemicals".

[u/Bitchcuits_and_Gayvy → u/guyincognito121]

They're also doing it to be purposely ambiguous, and to play a legal word game that allows them to say "no added nitrites"

[u/maddenallday → u/[deleted]]

Got it, thanks :(. Wishing I didn’t spend multiple years eating the stuff daily right about now

[u/[deleted] → u/maddenallday]

Cancer is complicated, there are significant genetic factors that play into it also. My information may be out of date, but 20 years ago when I was in college one of the leading theories was that genetics were largely responsible for determining if you would be more susceptible to developing cancer and then lifestyle would influence what type and to which degree. This was also at a time when genetics was cracking wide open and we had just finished sequencing the human genome. Our understanding is almost certainly better now than it was then, so I would encourage you not to take me as any authority -especially as I was working on majors in poli sci and int law, so only dabbling in STEM courses when gen ed demanded it.

I mostly mention this because you can do everything wrong, like George Burns, and live to be 100 without complication. You can also do everything right and still find yourself succumbing to malady.

[u/thegundamx → u/[deleted]]

Also, cancerous cells pop up in your body extremely often. Luckily we also possess a natural defense mechanism against those: the natural killer cell.

[u/Psyc3 → u/[deleted]]

In fact the leading cause of cancer is staying alive.

[u/018118055 → u/[deleted]]

I had a lot* of CT scans after complications in a kidney stone procedure. They have a lot of radiation but according to one calculator my lifetime cancer risk went from 41% to 41.5%. Helped me get some perspective.

*Maybe 25. I lost count.

[u/Warm-Bullfrog7766 → u/[deleted]]

I had no idea that uncured is really cured. I thought I was doing good by buying uncured bacon.

[u/qcriderfan87 → u/Warm-Bullfrog7766]

Uncured might be unprocessed, I think if the product has no ingredients list or just says “ingredients: pork” that would be ok

[u/longebane → u/Warm-Bullfrog7766]

Uncured is sometimes worst than cured, because when they use celery salts (or equivalent), they do not know how much nitrate is in the celery, so they include more to reach a base level amount.

[u/AtraposJM → u/[deleted]]

Damn I use deli ham for my kids school lunches at least a few times a week

[u/[deleted] → u/AtraposJM]

That's why the "1 hot dog a day" isn't a crazy statement.

1 hotdog = 1.6 oz
x5 lunches/week = 8 oz/week = 1/2 lb per week
Eating half a pound of deli meat per week is almost the same as a hot dog a day.

Add in a sandwich on the weekends, slightly more than the 1/2 lb, or a few stripes of bacon, and its easy to hit their number.

[u/viperex → u/[deleted]]

Not just the nitrates but even smoking the meat is bad? Now I'm wondering if I want to live long on this hellscape

[u/Mj_bron → u/maddenallday]

Turkey slices, yes.

Ground turkey shouldn't be, but it's always best to check.

[u/maddenallday → u/Mj_bron]

How do I check? Look at the ingredients and make sure it’s only ground turkey?

[u/Dante_FromSpace → u/maddenallday]

Ground meats, de-boned and skinless meat is mechanical processing. Typically done with knife or grinders. As mentioned, the article is referring to cured, smoked, and likely brined meats. The key factor is the sodium though nitrates or the smoking process (smoke being a known carcinogen). Incidentally, these methods are the oldest human means of preservation, and most cultures have quite a bit of it in their cultural cuisine, particularly in the Northern hemisphere. So, I'll keep eating it and die a painful death of ass cancer. Idgaf anymore

[u/QuesoChef → u/maddenallday]

I’ve never seen nitrates, nitrites or celery salt in ground plain old ground turkey, chicken, pork or beef. These have long been identified as unhealthy.

I’m not judging. I eat more than my share of pepperoni pizza.

[u/Dr_on_the_Internet → u/nlutrhk]

Interesting how easy it is for a random commenter to link an non-paywalled place to read the article. OP (also a mod) only links to a piece of journalism, which has the paywalled link.

[u/FritterEnjoyer → u/Dr_on_the_Internet]

This sub is probably 80% online articles misrepresenting a study and nobody even bothering to glance at the actual study to confirm.

[u/Eternal_Being → u/nlutrhk]

Chemical preservatives are forms of preservatives other than processes (like drying, freezing, etc.). Nitrites are chemical preservatives whether they are 'natural' or 'synthetic'.

It includes added salts and sugars, and also all those strange industrial chemicals you see in your ingredients lists.

[u/nlutrhk → u/Eternal_Being]

To lump added sugar or vinegar with nitrite salts as a risk factor in the context of processed meat and colorectal cancer strikes me as strange. The article also covers sugary beverages and diabetes, but the statement about chemical preservatives was specifically for processed meat.

[u/Whiteelefant → u/Eternal_Being]

I think their point with "chemical preservatives" is that it's so vague. Scientifically, nearly everything is a chemical. Water is a chemical. So them using the colloquial definition of "chemical" is strange. Just saying "preservatives" would be just as accurate.

[u/BionicTransWomyn → u/Whiteelefant]

It's also not super clear what other comorbidities were present or at what stage of life the problems developped. The article also ends with the researcher saying that it's concerning, but don'r worry too much about it.

[u/DCJL_Lurk → u/Whiteelefant]

Chemical preservative is well defined in the literature. Chemical refers to the mechanism of preservation.

[u/Omnizoom → u/tucker_case]

Usually processed means that it has been smoked and or cured or other stuff like that

The problem though with this is that so many degrees of “processed” exists and have varying risks.

This study linked here is a compound aggregate look combining many studies data but still provides no actual link or mechanism as to why and doesn’t look at any actual correlation other then what was called “processed” by the study and using a weight.

This is important as your all beef nitrate free ballpark frank that may cost more is likely less of a risk factor despite being called processed

Now this is remembering back from a study years ago that found a link to colorectal cancer and processed meats found that the 4% increase they noted was only for the worst types of processed meats full of chemicals and nitrates and artificial smokes and such, naturally smoked things contained some risk increase but not as substantial and foods like grilled veggies also had a risk increase. The other thing to note is that the way the risk increase is shown is disingenuous as even if they want to say it’s a 10% increase what they really mean is that the overall rate of colorectal cancer increased from 3% to 3.3% meaning in 1000 participants you would see 3 more cases over their entire lifetime which only really matters for large population samples , still if you managed to get a billion people to eat less garbage processed food you would see several million less cases of colorectal cancer over their lifetime

Additional this aggregate study atleast acknowledges the fact of co factors and that someone who eats a lot of cheap processed and sugary foods likely doesn’t have the best other aspects in life which is why these studies don’t have a mechanism and that it may be a combination effect

[u/PremonitionOfTheHex → u/Omnizoom]

I believe this should be the top comment, so much noise before getting to facts

[u/putmeinthezoo → u/Omnizoom]

My first thoughts ran the same way as yours. Someone eating hot dogs or similarly processed meat may well being doing so because of cofactors such as limited budget, food deserts, cooking skills, or even time available for cooking. Populations with these factors already have a higher rate of heart disease, diabetes, and earlier mortality and many are concentrated in areas where Joe's Mini Mart counts as the local grocery store.

If you could peg processed meat as the sole factor in diabetes development, we wouldn't have hot dogs at all.

[u/peon2 → u/tucker_case]

I really wish we would come up with a different term to describe what the article is talking about. Because the below definition of processed food shows it's a joke to lump everything together. You could have an unprocessed chunk of meat and then you cut it in half and now it's processed. That shouldn't be in the same category as canned Vienna sausages.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) defines a processed food as one that has undergone any changes to its natural state—that is, any raw agricultural commodity subjected to washing, cleaning, milling, cutting, chopping, heating, pasteurizing, blanching, cooking, canning, freezing, drying, dehydrating, mixing, packaging, or other procedures that alter the food from its natural state. The food may include the addition of other ingredients such as preservatives, flavors, nutrients and other food additives or substances approved for use in food products, such as salt, sugars, and fats.

[u/Vast-Website → u/peon2]

You should be using the WHO definition.

 Processed meat refers to meat that has been transformed through salting, curing, fermentation, smoking, or other processes to enhance flavour or improve preservation.

[u/FormalUnique8337 → u/peon2]

That’s what the NOVA classification is for: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova_classification Essentially, ground meat would probably be NOVA 2, a processed ingredient whereas a hot dog would be classified as 3, processed food, or - probably - 4, ultra processed food.

[u/judgeholden72 → u/FormalUnique8337]

Hot dog is 4. So is mechanically separated meat

[u/want_to_join → u/judgeholden72]

Right, but the health issues that come with hot dogs has nothing to do with the fact that the meat has been separated by a machine rather than a human hand in a glove. It's more than likely that the classification system has been written by the industry abusers in the first place.

[u/raoasidg → u/judgeholden72]

One of those is loaded up with nitrates and preservatives.

The other is the name for the method of separating meat from bone but does not add anything (granted it's a puree). It's a process, nothing else.

Not a very good classification it appears.

[u/nikilization → u/peon2]

I completely agree, the term processed is utterly meaningless.

[u/riotmanful → u/peon2]

So essentially no meat that the average person can get is “safe”? I get that lunch meats and anything that is on frozen pizza or pre-prepared burgers and such count because of the chemical preservatives and additives but to go as far as that definition, no meat that you yourself don’t raise and butcher is safe from these health concerns?

[u/Ishbar → u/riotmanful]

There a probably different grades of lunch meat too, whole turkey breast, roast beef, prosciutto might just be salted, smoked, etc. which makes them “processed”, but they’re still whole meats, rather than something like salami, or most hams which are reconstituted / shaped.

[u/Minion_of_Cthulhu → u/riotmanful]

Even then, butchering the meat technically makes it "processed" so you're still back to the same problem since the definition itself sucks. Apparently, the only "safe" way to eat meat is to devour it raw and preferably while it is still alive.

[u/Tyra3l → u/Minion_of_Cthulhu]

Laughs in Prions.

[u/thefruitsofzellman → u/tucker_case]

Usually in this context they mean smoked/cured meats.

[u/MantisAwakening → u/thefruitsofzellman]

The culprit is generally the nitrates used as preservatives. A lot of “healthier” food options proudly proclaim they are free of nitrates other than those naturally found in celery, without noting that celery is high in nitrates and so people often end up consuming more nitrate if they spend more money on the product.

[u/BlondeJesus → u/MantisAwakening]

My understanding is that it isn't just celery, but when you combine celery with some other ingredient a chemical reaction occurs that produces the nitrates.

However, one thing I have been wondering: Are nitrates something that always existed in the curing process? Or just something that we started adding during the industrialization of food to cure meats faster? I know that when smoking meat, the smoke contains nitrates and gets deposited on the meat. But a lot of curing techniques (like prosciutto) traditionally involved using heavy amounts of sea salt to just dry the meat until there was almost no water left in it. Then it was just left in cool underground rooms for long amounts of time and that prevented it from going down.

Do these more traditional forms of curing pose the same health risks? Or do nitrates still manage to make the way onto the meat somewhere in the process?

[u/homogenousmoss → u/BlondeJesus]

Air cured prosciuto (traditional real stuff) does not contain nitrates.

[u/chemistry_teacher → u/MantisAwakening]

Exactly. “Uncured” by using celery salt is a lie which should be banned by the FDA.

[u/ISUbutch → u/chemistry_teacher]

Except the FDA doesn’t regulate meat, the USDA does…

[u/Lambily → u/MantisAwakening]

So now celery is bad too???

[u/Milam1996 → u/Lambily]

Celery is fine, it’s healthy. They use celery extract and to get the same amount you’d need to eat an ungodly amount of celery.

[u/z_e_n_a_i → u/Milam1996]

Come on now, how many celeries equal a hotdog?

[u/GoodMornEveGoodNight → u/Lambily]

Nitrites interact with amines from protein fragments to form nitrosamines, which is what really is carcinogenic here. Antioxidants can interfere with the formation of nitrosamines, hence celery and vegetables can kind of cancel out the carcinogenic effects of their nitrite content.

[u/echoingElephant → u/GoodMornEveGoodNight]

Which is why, for example in Europe, most products containing nitrates are either required to contain an antioxidant, or it is strongly suggested.

[u/saladspoons → u/echoingElephant]

Wait, so is there a such thing as "anti-oxidant hot dogs"?

[u/ehtw376 → u/MantisAwakening]

So does that mean I’m fine with my frozen chicken breasts?

[u/Momoselfie → u/ehtw376]

Well don't eat them frozen....

But seriously, it should be fine if it's just pure breast and no nitrates/nitrites. Just read the package. Is the meat already salty or do you have to add your own spices?

[u/Kottetall99 → u/tucker_case]

I highly suspect that its the nitrates in the processed meats that causes the colorectal cancer. Artificial nitrates are known to cause cancer. If it were natural hotdogs with just meat, fat and some spices that very unlikely would cause cancer

[u/whatwedo → u/Kottetall99]

Doesn't matter if the nitrate/nitrite is "artificial" or "natural." If the meat is cured with celery, for instance, it will still create the same carcinogenic nitrosamines that damage DNA and lead to cancer. Basically, nitrate/nitrite plus protein in the absence of antioxidants creates nitrosamines.

This is why cured meat (protein cured with nitrites), high in nitrosamines, is associated with cancer and negative health effects, whereas vegetables high in nitrates (beets, arugula, lettuce, etc.) and antioxidants (e.g. Vitamin C) and low in protein are associated with longevity and positive health effects like reduced blood pressure.

[u/Kottetall99 → u/whatwedo]

I have wondered why it's fine to eat nitrates from vegetables but not in cured meats. Thanks for the clarification.

[u/pfooh → u/Kottetall99]

Any processed meat sold as 'natural' usually has a ton of celery in it, which is a 'natural' form of adding nitrates, but no different in its risks.

[u/spam__likely → u/Kottetall99]

nitrate is nitrate. there is no such a thing as artificial/natural nitrate.

[u/LetterheadVarious398 → u/burnburnmfer]

I work at Jimmy John's and get a free sandwich every day, and I can barely afford to buy my own food. I guess I'm fucked.

[u/woodford86 → u/burnburnmfer]

Is this saying even just regular sandwich meat from the deli counter is a bad idea?

Man, a I can’t prep every meal from raw inputs!

[u/Rebootrefresh → u/burnburnmfer]

With these studies I always wonder about how many other lifestyle factors are implied. Like if you eat a hot dog per day of processed meat, you clearly dgaf about your diet and/or you're poor and poorly educated about diet. There's probably 100 other things that you're doing that are bad for your health and the hot dog itself is more of a signal to bad overall lifestyle choices than it is a direct cause of the observed outcomes.

[u/Interesting-Pin1433 → u/Rebootrefresh]

Like if you eat a hot dog per day of processed meat, you clearly dgaf about your diet and/or you're poor and poorly educated about diet.

A lot of folks regularly eat deli style lunch meat, which also typically contains preservatives, and are a similar level of processed as hot dogs.

I was actually just with a friend yesterday who said July 4th is one of the few times they eat hot dogs because they're so processed. But this same person eats deli meat most days of the week for lunch....and yes I've asked if they buy the in-store roasted beef, turkey breast, etc. Nope, they buy the oddly loaf shaped processed and preservative filled big brand stuff.

This is a generally active, healthy weight person.

More of a dietary blind spot kinda thing, at least for some folks.

[u/ItsDefinitelyNotAlum → u/Interesting-Pin1433]

I work at a deli in a wealthy, body-conscious area. Lots of tennis & yoga, lots of grilled lean proteins from the cold case, kale salad is a hit, lots of complaints about mayo based deli salads, etc. Yet, most fit looking people get the big brand formed and pressed turkey. I've even had people pass on the store-roasted turkey because of the visible fat/skin at one edge. People pass on the house roasted beef simply because it's a skinny eye of round rather than the brand name behemoth. People don't get that real food isn't always big and perfect and uniform.

[u/WitAndWonder → u/Interesting-Pin1433]

Most people have some kind of dietary blind spots even when trying to 'eat healthy'. Hell, people assume that eating healthy is expensive because they think they have to eat a bushel of broccoli or 400g of Spinach at every meal, not realizing that the excess nutrients in that nutrient dense of food is going to be just as difficult for our systems to deal with as junk food. Moderation is key, but influencers and misinformation have turned eating healthy into a series of challenge diets that involve one kind of excess or another, indulging in some deficiency (such as zero carb, zero fat, whatever) and conveniently forget that the human body is designed for moderation in most things, able to account for normal overages and deficiencies, but not for the extremes we find ourselves frequenting.

[u/LesserGames → u/Rebootrefresh]

I wonder that too. A hot dog on white bread is very low in fiber. Insufficient fiber is definitely a risk for colorectal cancer.

[u/thefatchef321 → u/Rebootrefresh]

Or you are my 5 year old that I can only get to eat a hot dog

[u/Yeti_MD → u/burnburnmfer]

But that's still a lot.  It's presented as if that's a tiny amount, but eating a hot dog (or equivalent) for one meal every single day is not a little bit.  That's a substantial portion of your diet.

[u/Weak-Mission-2728 → u/helican]

There’s a great wkuk sketch about this very topic! I can’t link YouTube on this subreddit though..

[u/Cupcakes_n_Hacksaws → u/Weak-Mission-2728]

"Is that bad?"

"It's not good..."

[u/RegalBeagleKegels → u/Cupcakes_n_Hacksaws]

We're just ballparking here

[u/ironsights_ → u/RegalBeagleKegels]

Well, some days I don't eat any.

[u/The-Coolest-Of-Cats → u/Weak-Mission-2728]

One of my absolute favorite sketches of all time

[u/wsteelerfan7 → u/Weak-Mission-2728]

Can I get a name for the sketch? Love their stuff

[u/electrodan → u/wsteelerfan7]

WKUK Hot Dog Timmy

[u/Joebebs → u/helican]

well…it’s not good

[u/CMDR_omnicognate → u/helican]

Right? One hotdog a day, every day, seems like an extremely excessive amount. I feel like if you’re eating a hotdog every single day there’s going to be a bunch of other environmental and dietary factors that would lead to an 11% increase in diabetes. Frankly I’m more surprised it would only be an 11% increase

[u/True_Window_9389 → u/CMDR_omnicognate]

A lot of people eat cured deli meat, including turkey (which is supposedly a healthy option) for daily lunch sandwiches. Most likely, the curing, high sodium and whatever else is common in processed meat is the unhealthy part. Hot dogs are just one example.

[u/HotScissoring → u/CMDR_omnicognate]

Badly constructed article title. The reality is on a Monday you could eat a deli turkey sandwich, Tuesday a hotdog, Wednesday an Italian Sub/Hoagie, Thursday Ham & Potatoes, and Friday frozen chicken pot pie, and on the weekend get fast food with your family and you've had the same affect. It isn't 365 hot dogs a year, it's the processing of the meats in all forms that increase the risk.

[u/HicJacetMelilla → u/HotScissoring]

This definitely reads like the average Midwestern diet where I’m from.

[u/TheUnluckyBard → u/[deleted]]

My question is how sure are we that it’s the processed meat causing it, and not just a correlation?

We don't.

Quoting from the abstract of the actual paper that this weird alt-health propaganda rag is claiming to talk about:

These associations each received two-star ratings reflecting weak relationships or inconsistent input evidence

[u/Badassmcgeepmboobies → u/CMDR_omnicognate]

Growing up my parents fed me either a hotdog or some other type of processed meat everyday until I was 17. They are cheap people with no time for cooking in those days. I guess I’ll try to eat healthier from now on to make up for it idk.

[u/DC_Coach → u/Badassmcgeepmboobies]

Cheap or poor. Poor people can't afford to eat right, so they eat what they can. It costs money to eat right.

[u/aaeme → u/CMDR_omnicognate]

And 11 and 7 are borderline negligible. I don't know the non-hotdog numbers but that means, for example, a 5% chance of diabetes becomes 5.55% and a 1% chance of colon cancer becomes 1.07%.

It's a small consideration for health service providers planning for massive populations and of no concern for any individual. If you got cancer, there's only a 7% chance you wouldn't have otherwise. You certainly couldn't blame it on the hotdogs and you can't avoid cancer by avoiding hotdogs. Quelle difference?

[u/VisMortis → u/CMDR_omnicognate]

Before I went vegan I routinely ate processed meat 3 times a day. I have many friends and family who do: omlette and bacon for breakfast, mcdonalds for lunch, a sandwich for dinner. Millions of people eat like this.

[u/Skullkan6]

What exactly does processed meat mean in this context? 

[u/RhinoFish → u/Skullkan6]

I assume they mean processed with nitrites

[u/hacksoncode → u/RhinoFish]

Or smoking. Most preservation mechanisms except drying, really.

[u/minuteman_d → u/hacksoncode]

Isn't smoking a different mechanism? The processed meats have nitrates, but smoked meats have compounds because of the burning fat/meat?

[u/hacksoncode → u/minuteman_d]

Yes, it's a different mechanism. They contain smoke particles, which are known strong carcinogens. Hence lung cancer from smoking (other things contribute to that one, too, though).

For example, Chinese people that drink smoked tea every day (yum!, yes really, I love it) have significantly higher risks of mouth and stomach cancer.

[u/-xXColtonXx- → u/hacksoncode]

I’m fairly confident there was a study that showed a strong relationship between extremely hot beverages and throat and stomach cancer. I know Chinese people take tea and even water often and near boiling temperatures. Could that not be the culprit rather than the tea itself?

[u/hacksoncode → u/-xXColtonXx-]

Yes, but a study (which I'm having a hard time finding right now) compared smoked tea drinkers to other tea drinkers and found an increased risk of those cancers.

Like all these things, even high relative risks may be small in absolute terms, of course.

[u/jpk195 → u/Skullkan6]

"Certain foods contribute to inflammation, which plays a role in chronic diseases. Processed meats often contain nitrites. These compounds convert into cancer-causing nitrosamines inside the stomach."

[u/GeneralGom → u/jpk195]

So basically, ham, sausage, bacon, salami, etc, that have nitrite preservatives.

[u/el_muerte28 → u/GeneralGom]

Oh, so the good meats...

[u/Feeling_Inside_1020 → u/el_muerte28]

Why would science do this to us?!

[u/zenchow → u/Feeling_Inside_1020]

Super rude to post this on 4th of July weekend

[u/MothChasingFlame → u/el_muerte28]

Literally the only ones I miss since going full veg. Inexplicably don't miss good steak at all, but salami and the trashest version of bologna available? Mmmmmm. My beloveds, how I dream of thee.

...Are nitrates addictive?

[u/ArgentaSilivere → u/MothChasingFlame]

Those products are also full of salt and fat which your body naturally craves. Vegetarian/vegan diets are usually lower in both.

[u/chiniwini → u/GeneralGom]

What about "traditionally made" versions that are just smoked or cured and only have added spices?

[u/Just_A_Dogsbody → u/chiniwini]

I've wondered about this for years. Like, what about smoked salmon? Salmon is super healthy, full of 'good' fats. But does smoking it negate all the positive effects?

[u/poptartanon → u/Just_A_Dogsbody]

You’ll still receive all the health benefits that salmon provides nutritionally, but you’re also increasing the likelihood of certain health issues down the road. Everything is a give and take.

[u/unknownpoltroon → u/jpk195]

so maybe the goddamn title should be nitrate containing meat causes cancer?

[u/Telemere125 → u/Skullkan6]

They’re always so vague when talking about “processed” meat. Does chopping it up a bunch “process” it too much? Does adding salt over process it? Like, I’ve always asked what’s the right amount of prep you can put into a piece of meat before it becomes processed. I fully understand how hotdogs and shaped luncheon meat is too processed to be healthy. Not only are the formed into a paste before they’re shaped, there’s tons of added preservatives. But I’ve also seen where people will claim smoked meats are “processed”. And you can smoke a piece of meat without any additional preservatives added to it. And plenty of good quality sausage is just chopped up meat and seasonings stuffed into a casing and cooked - with no added preservatives. So can we just stop talking about “processed” meat and maybe the dangers of the preservatives we add?

[u/PeterWritesEmails → u/Telemere125]

> And you can smoke a piece of meat without any additional preservatives adde

While i agree with the premise of your comment, by smoking youre absolutely adding a lot of chemical compounds from the smoke itself.

Some of them are suspected to be carcinogenic.

[u/AwkwardChuckle → u/Telemere125]

Nitrate cured meat products - there you go my friend.

[u/RyuujiStar]

I eat about 7 hotdogs per day... it's that high?

[u/Rs90 → u/RyuujiStar]

This is all just breakfast 

[u/Healthy_Profit_9701 → u/Rs90]

I'm ballparking here!

[u/immigratingishard → u/RyuujiStar]

It's a little high.

[u/vladamine → u/immigratingishard]

Is that bad?

[u/mistercolebert → u/vladamine]

Well… it’s not good.

[u/Theorex → u/mistercolebert]

And you know sometimes I'm so busy at work I don't even have time for lunch.

[u/bi0nicman → u/Theorex]

I'm just ballparking here

[u/Theorex → u/bi0nicman]

That is such a fantastic line, just perfection.

[u/roastuh → u/Theorex]

I've seen this sketch probably 30+ times and I only just got the joke here because of your comment.

[u/Valkymaera → u/Theorex]

You can't skip lunch.
You just can't.

[u/MaxDentron → u/immigratingishard]

What about a hot dog bowl? 

[u/iDontDoMeth → u/MaxDentron]

And what is a hot dog.. bowl?

[u/Framski55 → u/iDontDoMeth]

It’s like a burrito bowl. But it’s chopped up hot dogs in a big ol bread…bowl.

[u/Spare_Pixel → u/RyuujiStar]

I had a hotdog bowl for lunch

[u/mermaidrampage → u/Spare_Pixel]

What exactly is a hot dog...bowl?

[u/Spare_Pixel → u/mermaidrampage]

It's like a burrito bowl. But it's chopped up hotdogs... in a big ol bread bowl

[u/account128927192818 → u/RyuujiStar]

Just walk me through your day.

[u/RyuujiStar → u/account128927192818]

I wake take shower and have a bagel and something for breakfast

[u/Zalpha → u/RyuujiStar]

Wait, stop right there... That 'something', wouldn't happen to be a hotdog would it?

[u/SL0WandP41NFUL → u/RyuujiStar]

Yeah... on second thought that number might be a little low..

[u/Isakk86 → u/RyuujiStar]

What do you have for lunch?...It's hotdogs, isn't it?

[u/RyuujiStar → u/Isakk86]

Sometimes it could be salad

[u/Kerblaaahhh → u/RyuujiStar]

Could it though?

[u/RyuujiStar → u/Kerblaaahhh]

But it's usually hot dogs

[u/UniqueTonight → u/RyuujiStar]

r/HotDogs in shambles rn

[u/mikeffd]

should Joey Chestnut be worried?

[u/LongjumpingNinja258 → u/mikeffd]

He should be dead according to this article.

[u/WestleyThe → u/LongjumpingNinja258]

He should be dead anyway…

check out some of his records… id be dead if I did any of these

[u/oneeyedwillienelson → u/mikeffd]

775% increase risk of Type 2 diabetes

[u/Inhocooks → u/oneeyedwillienelson]

He's consumed nearly 400,000 calories worth of hot dogs just in competition. If he doesn't get diabetes, this study is fucked

[u/Chickpleas → u/mikeffd]

I mean yes, obviously

[u/as0003]

Someone doesn’t know the difference between relative risk increases and absolute risk

[u/gbroon → u/as0003]

That's unfortunately the shockingly bad science reporting that happens these days.

The people that wrote the articles either aren't qualified to adequately interpret the science or have such a short amount of time to write an article they don't have time to adequately fact check and just throw out the details in the press release with a catchy title.

[u/danby → u/gbroon]

Mostly it's to make the numbers seem big and newsworthy. "increases your [absolute] risk by less than 0.5%" is just less striking than "increases your risk by 7%"

[u/pakoffee → u/gbroon]

I also wonder who paid for the article. Some (from experience) outlets will take in any story provided by 3rd parties and publish it. The 3rd party shopping the piece can be anyone, while the writer is credited. Given this is from nature republished on earth but a staff writer says they "wrote" it, its hard to tell who funded the original study and write-up. I have (in a past job) been given very "tainted" instructions to write marketing material that emphasized a particular stance via statistics for such hit jobs. Granted, it was about battery life for industrial trucks in cold weather. But the same tactic of pick stats, get an article written using over the top misuse of logic/stats/terms/arguments, then submit it to larger venues and let them disseminate it on media networks from there? Yeah, this has a whiff of a PR hit job over time.

[u/King_Jeebus → u/as0003]

Someone doesn’t know the difference between relative risk increases and absolute risk

What does this mean in this context?

[u/Infektus → u/King_Jeebus]

Imagine 1 in 100 gets diabetes. The absolute risk is 1%, not that high. If you eat a hot dog a day, the risk increases by 100%. That’s a big increase, but still only 2 in 100.

[u/King_Jeebus → u/Infektus]

Thanks! So to check my understanding, the problem is people would mistakenly think from the reporting that eating hotdogs will 100% give you diabetes ("absolute risk"), whereas the truth is that it's just a bit of an increase ("relative risk increases") but still unlikely - close?

(EDIT: Or to switch back to OPs numbers, it makes it look like hotdogs give you an 11% higher chance of diabetes, but in reality it's just increasing by 11% of an unknown-but-presumably-small chance...?)

[u/danby → u/King_Jeebus]

Absolute risk is the number of folk who will get a disease. Usually reported as the number of people in 1000, occasionally 'n in 100' or 'n in 100k' is used depending on the population size you're talking about. The lifetime absolute risk of colorectal cancer is about 41 in 1000. Sometimes this will be reported in percentage points, in this case: you have a lifetime 4.1% chance of getting colorectal cancer.

Relative risk is the change in absolute risk, typically reported as a percentage change. As in, "eating a hot dog a day increases your risk of colorectal cancer by 7%". But to know what this means you also need to compare it to the absolute risk. So an additional 7% on top of the 41 in 1000. Which is about 44 in 1000. Or 4.4%

Another way to think about it is that relative risk is the change in absolute risk relative to some baseline absolute risk (i.e people who do not eat processed meats).

From a personal POV you might consider a change of 41 in 1000 to 44 in 1000 is an acceptable risk to take and continue to eat processed meats. From a public health POV, within populations of millions, this means many 1000s more cases of colorectal cancer.

Worth noting that quoting relative risk without also telling the reader the absolute risk is functionally worthless. You can not understand risk adjustments without also knowing the baseline risk.

[u/Renilusanoe → u/danby]

Great post, especially the part about personal vs societal risk..

[u/Hammock2Wheels → u/King_Jeebus]

Yeah, an ELI5 version: an increase in percentage of a tiny amount is still a tiny amount.

[u/Omnizoom → u/King_Jeebus]

Yea sort of

And when you look at small numbers like 3% and that having a 7% increase it’s a very small amount overall for individuals but matters more for large population pools

And some of these are “over lifetime” risks and just the fact humans live longer we will see some over lifetime risks increase because of that alone

If a study found that say childhood obesity rates increased by 200% because of X then there’s a good chance X is causing a serious problem and risk increase compared to 200% increase in diabetes rates over a lifetime as you can just get diabetes when older from your pancreas just being crap at 90 years old

It’s intentionally sensationalizing the value to make an impact

[u/hacksoncode → u/Infektus]

still only 2 in 100

Yeah, the studies care about population levels, not individuals. Articles aren't wrong, but they usually don't go that next step of reporting Risk*Affected population=Number of new cases.

That still means there are (in your hypothetical underestimate and overestimate of the effect by an order of magnitude each) 7 million Americans with diabetes instead of 3.5 million... which is... still quite expensive and worth reducing.

[u/as0003 → u/King_Jeebus]

Take 100 people and track how many get colorectal cancer (about 5 out of 100 people over their lifetime), a 7% relative increase means about 5.35 out of 100 instead of 5. So for each person, the absolute risk goes up by about 0.35% (less than 1 extra case per 100 people).

Plain summary: It sounds scary when you hear “7% more risk,” but the real increase for most people is very small.

[u/AncientMisanthrope → u/King_Jeebus]

The lifetime risk of colon cancer is something like 3.9%. A 7% increase in risk makes it 4.17% chance of getting colon cancer in a lifetime. An absolute increase of 0.27% if you are eating a meal a day at 7-11.

[u/CMDR_omnicognate]

So, as always with these sorts of statements, is it the processed meat giving people diabetes or just that people who eat large amounts of processed meats are also likely to get diabetes because of poor diet and likely economic factors? Processed meats are cheaper, and so are likely to be eaten more by poorer groups, who also have much higher risks of illnesses like diabetes.

If nothing else, does one hotdog a day not seem kinda excessive to anyone else? Like a hotdog is something you have occasionally on maybe a trip or at a bbq, it’s definitely not something I’m eating every single day.

[u/sockalicious → u/CMDR_omnicognate]

The scientists did use methods to control for the lifestyle issues you mention. They also gave their conclusions a two-star rating, which translates to "weak." This kind of stuff never makes it into the lay press; I don't know why not, if the conclusions are pertinent their quality and reliability are just as pertinent.

[u/NeverVegan → u/sockalicious]

Participants had to RECALL their diets… oh yeah sounds like sound evidence to me.

[u/CMDR_omnicognate → u/sockalicious]

Well, the reason that stuff doesn’t make it to the press is because it makes the articles less eye catching.

They exists to get people to click on them and share them, nobody would share an article that says “scientist makes tenuous conclusion about processed meats that seems to be academically kinda unsound”

[u/Otaraka]

I’m thinking it would’ve been a bit tough to find somebody who’s having one hotdog every day but otherwise healthy diet.

[u/ThisOneIsTheLastOne → u/Otaraka]

Or how about a sandwich with processed meat instead. Black Forest ham and other smoked or processed meats are about the same as a hot dog and many people eat that almost everyday.

[u/patatjepindapedis → u/ThisOneIsTheLastOne]

don't you dare speak ill of my salami

[u/Ds1018 → u/ThisOneIsTheLastOne]

This is me. 100g of deli turkey for lunch every day. Otherwise my diet is about as healthy as humanly possible. I track my macros, get in over 250g protein, my fats are all healthy sources, get in 50g of fiber a day, don’t smoke or drink. I’ve known this giant mass of deli meat I eat daily is one the glaring flaw in my daily food intake.

For a while now it’s been the “next on the list” of things to fix in my diet.

[u/damien_aw]

This post badly misrepresents the study. First, the headline “can cause health issues, even in tiny amounts” is sensationalist and ignores that the study is observational. It shows associations, not causation. Eating a hot dog doesn’t cause diabetes any more than umbrellas cause rain.

Second, the relative risk increases (11% for diabetes, 7% for cancer) sound dramatic out of context, but the absolute risk difference is small. Most people reading this will wrongly assume a hot dog a day is a death sentence, when the actual increased risk is marginal unless it’s part of a much larger pattern.

Also worth noting: the study looks at long-term habitual consumption, not “tiny amounts” like an occasional BBQ. Saying there’s “no safe amount” is a stretch unless you’re eating ultra-processed meat every single day for years.

tl;dr Correlation ≠ causation, relative risk ≠ absolute risk, and hot dogs ≠ instant cancer.

[u/ArrivesLate]

The headline stopped short, the article goes on to say processed meat, sugary drinks, and trans fats. It’s also the nitrates in processed meat they are theorizing are the problem, so this would include deli meats as they are also preserved with nitrates.

[u/Expensive_Panic_2738]

“Each year, West Virginians consume 481 hot dogs per capita, according to 24/7 Wall St. That means the average West Virginian eats more than one hot dog a day.”

Curious what their state averages are in regard to their hotdog consumption.

https://www.tastingtable.com/1887834/west-virginia-most-hot-dogs/?zsource=yahoo

[u/Diligent_Affect8517 → u/Expensive_Panic_2738]

"Curious what their state averages are in regard to their hotdog consumption. "

Not every state, but top 12 states and top cities..

[u/johnnyringo771 → u/Expensive_Panic_2738]

Maybe this is a dumb question, but they exist, so I'll ask. Are hot dog eating competitions removed from the data on something like this? Because I feel like they could skew the data a lot.

[u/sellyme → u/johnnyringo771]

Are hot dog eating competitions removed from the data on something like this?

No, for several reasons.

Because I feel like they could skew the data a lot.

The population of West Virginia is 1.77 million. At an average of 481 hotdogs per capita that's a total of 851,370,000 hotdogs.

If you presume that 10,000 West Virginians compete in a dozen different hot dog eating competitions every year and on each instance they eat 50 hotdogs apiece, that's a total of 6,000,000 hot dogs consumed at competitions. Those are all massively generous estimates and it still ended up being several million short of even reaching 1% of the purported total. So it doesn't skew the data in any meaningful way.

---

All that said, it's a rather moot point, because the "data" doesn't exist. It is a completely fabricated claim; if you click the source linked in that article you'll see that it's literally just blogspam injecting credit card advertisements into the article content, and no source is provided for anything they say.

Any claim about demographics data that isn't immediately followed by a link to the pdf on arxiv containing full methodologies and tables is almost certainly fake.

[u/grandplans]

Am I missing something or are these numbers almost negligible?

A Google search told me that according to the CDC, the baseline "risk" is 10-12%. So an 11% increase in that risk brings it to 12.21%

Baseline for colorectal cancer is 4% ish. The increase amounts to 0.28% increase.

Assuming I'm wrong, could you please tell me how? I see these headlines all the time and when I do the math they don't really amount to huge increases.

[u/DickPerfect]

The #1 cause of death is living.

[u/Junior-University680]

"These associations each received two-star ratings reflecting weak relationships or inconsistent input evidence, highlighting both the need for further research and—given the high burden of these chronic diseases—the merit of continuing to recommend limiting consumption of these foods."

Literal nothingburger. Or nothingdog, if you will.

[u/TheSpotOnUranus]

People in these comments thinking a hot dog a day is a lot is wild. People will eat the same thing daily for the convenience often. I know many people that will eat the same type of sandwich daily for years. Now if this article said 4 a day. That would be a lot.